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The Delusion of Digital Ad Impressions

TL;DR: In a world with barely 5 billion people online, the digital advertising machine reportedly operates at a scale measured in trillions. Platforms promote astronomical figures on possible impressions, showcasing the seemingly limitless reach and engagement available to marketers. These numbers are transactions, measurements of potential visibility, counted regardless of whether an ad is consciously noticed or ignored. Marketers need to question impressions and verify ad placements and performance in ways that align with client goals.

What Are Impressions?

According to the Media Rating Council (MRC), a viewable display ad impression counts if 50% of the pixels of an ad can be seen for one continuous second. LinkedIn considers an impression valid if 50% of the ad is seen within 0.3 seconds (300 milliseconds).

The industry has set the bar so low that an ad can "count" as seen even when the viewer hasn’t actually engaged with it. And I’m not even talking about invalid or bot traffic, or pixel stuffing, or any of the fraud.

Setting the definition of impression aside, and the insane thinking behind it, if we want to really get a sense of the scale of delusion here, let’s tally all the possible impressions online…

How many possible impressions are there in the digital world?

Below are estimated monthly impressions from major players:

When I Googled (funny, that) how many impressions were possible on YouTube in a single day, the Ai Overview answer was shockingly optimistic:

I quickly slapped these figures into GPT, and according to it’s math (which, I know is suspect) across all digital platforms, the estimation is that 43.2 trillion ad impressions might/could/do occur daily, with a potentially limitless ceiling.

But how is a number like that possible on a planet with only a handful of billions online?

The Impossible Distribution of Ad Impressions

The math behind digital ad impressions exposes the scale of the problem.

Excluding those under 16, about 4 billion people use the internet. If we take the purported ad impressions and apply them to everyone online, each person would be assigned 10,800 ad impressions per day.

If each ad impression required a minimum of 2 seconds to process:

10,800 ads × 2 seconds = 21,600 seconds per day.

That equals 6 hours per person, per day they would need to dedicate solely to viewing ads.

How Did We Get Here?

  • Platforms are thinking you can’t do math or ask questions.

  • Automated traffic and ad fraud inflates impression counts.

  • Ads register as “viewed” even if they appear for only a fraction of a second.

  • The supply of impressions vastly exceeds the capacity for meaningful consumption.

The Impossibility of Reaching the Right Person

When I downloaded my data profile from Experian, one of the major data brokers that provides the targeting information for digital advertising, I saw a bunch of errors (I’m retired and a homeowner and I’m interested in high end spirits and golf (not true), and my preferences for every major car brand was noted at length, also completely washed and wrong) that would make it impossible for the right ad to reach me in the right moment.

Adalytics research has also shown the challenge of delivering the right/relevant message to the right person at the right time. The sheer scale of impressions, combined with poorly maintained datasets, fragmented attention, and automated traffic, creates a system where precise targeting becomes statistically improbable.

Simply establishing what ‘viewability’ means can be tough, considering that we’ve known for over a decade that a large percentage of programmatic ads never get seen by human eyes. Google told us about the problem in 2014. ComScore wrote about the problematic math behind viewability benchmarks in 2013. Did we listen then? Are we listening now?

Marketers have known impressions are a bit fuzzy, but that doesn’t mean we accept them. In an excellent examination of impressions online, Dana DiTomaso explains why impressions aren’t that impressive, and why marketers should be more discerning about media buys.

The volume of ads served far exceeds the actual moments of human engagement, leading to inefficiencies in ad budgets, marketing strategy and advertising optimization writ large.

If all these impressions are bullshit, marketing is in Plato's Cave, and the shadows we see on our wall-to-wall dashboards don't reflect the real world.

Will we question it and turn around to face reality, or are we too warm by the fire? 🧐

MAC Action Steps

Marketers can no longer accept impression-based reporting at face value. The following steps help prevent wasted ad spend and improve accountability:

  1. Prioritize meaningful engagement metrics. Click-through rates (CTR), conversions, and time spent with content provide better insights than impression volume.

  2. Audit media buys regularly. Ensure that ad placements align with audience behavior rather than just total impressions served.

  3. Demand transparency from platforms. Push for clearer definitions of viewability and insist on third-party verification for reported metrics.

  4. Invest in quality over quantity. Reducing wasted impressions by focusing on engaged audiences leads to better ROI.

  5. Account for automated traffic and invalid impressions. Use tools to detect and minimize bot-driven ad inflation.

Digital advertising will continue expanding, and impression numbers will keep rising. Marketers need to move beyond vanity metrics and build strategies that reflect real human engagement—not the illusion of infinite visibility.

RESOURCES:

Analyze ads for fraud with FouAnalytics: https://fouanalytics.com/
• Growth Dynamics can help analyze ad placements: https:/www.growthdynamics.dev/
• DeepSee identifies publisher fraud detection: https://deepsee.io/
• Follow awesome people fighting ad fraud, like Keri Thomas

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